These are some of the effects of globalisation and the Fourth Industrial Revolution set out in the 2018 Future of Jobs Report of the World Economic Forum. It also estimates that workers will need an average of 101 days of retraining and upskilling between now and 2022.

It was with this outlook in mind that, in May of last year, the EU Commissioner for Employment, Social Affairs, Skills and Labour Mobility at the time, Marianne Thyssen, presented a ‘strengthened’ European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (EGF), to ensure that people “have the right skills” and access to “modern social protection adapted to new forms of work”. Set up 12 years ago, the EGF offers co-funding for up to 60 per cent of the cost of initiatives such as training and retraining to reintegrate workers affected by factory closures or the decline in economic sectors affected by globalisation, such as the 4,500 Ericsson employees in Sweden who lost their jobs as a result of the “increasingly tough competition from Asian producers”.

Protecting people, not jobs

The EFG “is an attempt to compensate people that have lost out to automation but it is a mere fraction of EU social spending” – set at 37 per cent in the 2017-2022 budget – Andrés Ortega Klein, researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute think tank and author of La Imparable Marcha de los Robots [The Unstoppable March of the Robots], tells Equal Times. And whilst worldwide corporate spending on digital transformation (DX) is reaching dizzying heights, as shown in reports such as that of the International Data Corporation, “governments are lagging behind”, says the researcher, adding that public transition policies “should be protecting people rather than jobs, as we do not know if these will be salvaged”.

“Those who lose their jobs to automation are not ready for the new jobs. Not enough is being invested in upskilling,” Ortega warns.

Indeed, underfinancing – around €170 million a year (US$193 million) until 2020 for the whole of the European Union – is a serious handicap. “The EGF is a trial; there has not been [sufficient] funding; the thinking was that the market would absorb these people, and it has, but with poorer pay and conditions, leading to the shrinking and decline of the middle classes, and that represents a major threat to democratic stability.” The absence of a community-wide strategy is another setback.

The land of the rising sun already has a national artificial intelligence strategy. China is also ready with its artificial intelligence development plan and has commissioned search engine and tech company Baidu to set up a “deep learning laboratory” in partnership with the country’s leading universities.

Meanwhile, the ILO, in the Centenary Declaration for the Future of Work adopted in June, called for the right to “effective lifelong learning” at the same time as urging governments, employers and workers, as well as educational institutions, to pool their efforts.

For ILO economist and expert in technological change and its impact on employment, Irmgard Nübler, focusing on the development of skills such as critical thinking or creativity are key to developing a “long-term approach” to the future of work involving governments, employers and civil society:

The future of work will be determined by technology and institutions

Technological retraining alone, however, will not provide us with quality jobs. “Over the last 30 to 40 years, we have shifted towards an economic paradigm whereby growth and economic development have become more important than anything else. That has led to a situation where many institutions have been adapted to support growth, efficiency and globalisation. When we look at decent work, for example, in many countries, the institutions that used to ensure decent work have been cut back or changed based on the argument that they could destroy jobs,” recalls Nübler.

Ortega Klein shares this realistic view of technology:

In addition to the threat of inequality, the global youth unemployment crisis is, along with climate change, the great challenge of our time, as Joaquín Nieto, head of the ILO Office in Spain told Equal Times. According to the statistics portal Statista, the global rate of youth unemployment has been between 10.7 per cent and 11.8 per cent over the last decade. It is not likely to fall by 2020.

To the question of whether training is the solution, Nübler’s response is clear. “Social justice needs to be the compass for our choices as a society, we always have to ask ourselves the questions ‘Is it fair?’, ‘Who is benefiting and who is losing?’ and ‘Is there a balance?’. If, as a society, we think it is not fair, our governments should invest more in everything we need to give young people access to jobs,” she adds. The economist also stresses the importance of “listening to what young people want” and to create jobs that match, as well as providing them with incentives to work in sectors where more staff is needed, such as the care and ageing sectors.

As the economist underlines, however, the real challenge is understanding that “we cannot remain in this growth paradigm”.

This article was originally published on Equal Times

Here you can find information on The Future of Work, and IndustriALL Global Union, as well as guidance on the Just Transition that will be necessary to handle the coming transformations; A trade union guide to a Just Transition for workers